Lest there be no question, we are now in a full-blown bubble. What on earth Podshow is going to do with almost $25M in funding is anyone's guess, but it's not going to end well I can tell you that. To raise this money they must have had a $35-60M pre-money valuation. That means the VCs are going to look for a $300-500M exit at the very least, and that means they need to get to $30-50M in revenue. Not sure I see that happening.
The entire concept is that this is niche media--you don't need a lot of money. Weblogs, Inc. raised low six figures (from Mark Cuban) and we never spent it--we made money.
Unless Podshow is looking to do a rollup (which is what Ron and Adam were involved in during the last bubble) this is gonna end badly. I'd love to believe a podcasting business could grow to a billion dollars--but I just don't.
OK folks... now it's a bubble (or "what could podshow even do with another $15M?!?!")
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Reader Comments
(Page 1 of 1)2. Guys, where did you get all of this numbers?!
Posted at 5:03PM on Sep 28th 2006 by Bio
3. They didn't even spend the last 8 million well. Have you seen the Podshow site? Its a dog!
Molly
Posted at 7:25PM on Sep 28th 2006 by Phillip Molly Malone
4. Wow! I hope they use some of that money to hire UI experts. Podshow's layout and user tools are some of the worst I've seen, in the context of their A series funding levels that is. And rollup what? If the plan is to become the "YouTube" of independent music and media, there is a problem that Jason has clearly articulated; the majority of YouTube's content is stolen. Take that content out of YouTube and their value falls below the minimum exit numbers VCs would expect for $25M. Jason said it best, this is gonna end badly.
Posted at 8:35PM on Sep 28th 2006 by Cletus
5. Is podshow liable for me barfing on my keyboard
Posted at 11:45PM on Sep 28th 2006 by howard lindzon
6. What's a "rollup"?
Posted at 11:53PM on Sep 28th 2006 by Reggie
7. I agree their layout is terrible. Forget searching for new shows, I can't even find the ones I'm already looking for when I go there. Takes forever. And when you finally do get there, it takes like four clicks to get something to play. Tryin to be way too ajaxy and all that.
Posted at 12:05AM on Sep 29th 2006 by jay
8. Jason, what's a 'roll-up'? What would this mean for Podshow? Thanks, Tymen from Amsterdam
Posted at 3:39AM on Sep 29th 2006 by Tymen Selman
9. Producing quality content like the Gillmor Gang is really expensive.
Posted at 8:03AM on Sep 29th 2006 by Michael Pate
10. This is ridiculous. We were able to put together a niche videocasting site that is profitable after only 3 weeks. I wouldn't know how to spend $1 million, much less $25MM, because it's just not necessary.
People either want want you have to offer, or they don't. Money won't cure that.
It does feel a bit like 1998...
Posted at 9:08AM on Sep 29th 2006 by Brian Clark
11. Wow, this is getting ridiculous. I can't see this being a good investment for the investors. $25 million so far.....just way too much money for a site of this nature.
Posted at 9:33AM on Sep 29th 2006 by Jacob Gower
12. Exactly. What have that blown the original investment on?
Unless they're building bricks and mortar studios around the world, I cant see what this money is going to go on.
Aquisitions maybe. (roll-up)
And the investors? Well, they're clearly on a Kool-Aid IV drip. Or there's just too much sun out there on the west coast.
Adam and Ron must be very good persuasive salesmen. They can talk the talk, but can they walk the walk? I have to say I'm not too impressed with what they have acheived so far with the previous millions and all those engineers.
What you see SO FAR at podcast.com has been built by ONE person and much less than 1 million dollars.
13. Anyone want to buy some tulips?
Posted at 1:00PM on Sep 30th 2006 by China Law Blog
14. I hope they really can pull it off and make a bunch of money it will be good for all. But I was pretty suprised what they took months to build as compared to what we put together in six weeks with no money.
Posted at 1:06AM on Oct 3rd 2006 by Todd Cochrane
15. While we're talking numbers, Keith & The Girl recently claimed that the Podshow contracted shows - i.e. that are owned wholly by Podshow, as opposed to the 25,000 podcasts that merely use Podshow for hosting - get only 12,000 downloads a day. Adam Curry came back and said that the entire network had 52,000,000 download requests a month, though this does include those 25,000 non-contracted shows so the numbers don't equate. Jason, do you know anything about any moves to introduce independent Nielsen/Hitwise-style auditing of download figures?
Posted at 12:30PM on Mar 8th 2007 by Paul Montgomery
16. Although this post is eight months old, it answered a question I had about a current situation. Thank you for the post.
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1. This is just stupid. It's going to get ugly.
Did they need this round? Have they blown through the 9 million they already raised?
Unless this is one of those "hire all you friends and pay them a boatload" companies, what could they spend all this money on?
Posted at 4:38PM on Sep 28th 2006 by Erik Schwartz